The City’s focus on high-density housing development could overburden our schools, adding as many as 1,334 students by 2040.


Sources

Edina Public Schools Resident Enrollment Projections (Shortcut: Page 22) LINK

2018 Comprehensive Plan Table 3.1 Population, Household & Employment Projections (Shortcut: Page 3-2) LINK

MORE INFORMATION

Potential New Student Yield from Projected Growth

 
Screen Shot 2019-09-17 at 12.18.00 PM.png
 

*Table 3.4 includes Low density detached, Low density attached, Multifamily and Mixed-Use Residential categories only.

**Demand for residential acres through 2040 is shown in Table 3.9. This takes total number of new units needed per Met Council projection (7,491) for new households and divides them among land use categories, then applies minimum and maximum densities for each land use category to determine how many acres would be needed. Table 3.11 builds on that by staging development of these units over three timeframes: 2016-2020, 2021-2030, and 2031-2040. For 2016-2020 timeframe, we do not know which approved, under construction, or completed developments are included in the projected number of units and how many would be in addition to what has been approved, constructed and under construction 2016 to present.

Explanations

Column 1 – The Comp Plan “guides” future land uses. Column 1 shows the future land use categories as shown in Table 3.11 of the Comp Plan.

Column 2 – Column 2 shows which land use categories are in elementary attendance areas. This draws from the Future Land Use map (Figure 3.11) in the Comp Plan and elementary attendance boundaries as shown on the EPS website. 

Column 3 – Column 3 shows the density range for each land use category. Density is number of units per acre. “Unit” is not defined. It could range from a studio apartment to a large single-family home, for example.

Column 4 – Column 4 shows how many units of housing existed within each land use category in 2016, per Table 3.4 in the Comp Plan. Table 3.4 does not show all land use categories, so where no number was provided in Table 3.4, there is an asterisk. 

Column 5 – The Met Council projects Edina will need 7,491 additional units of housing between 2016 and 2040. Table 3.11 in the Comp Plan divides these units among the different land use categories, high density and up. It assumes none of the additional units will be low density or medium density. More on this in the discussion below. Column 8 shows how the 7,491 additional units are divided up.

Column 6 – Column 6 shows the average student yield per housing type as shown on p. 22 of the Edina School District’s enrollment projections report (February 2019). This column assumes that none of the units in the land use categories are condos. It assumes that townhomes are medium density.

Column 7 – Column 7 shows the actual number of students, as of June 30, 2018, by housing type as shown in the enrollment projections report. 

Column 8 – The Met Council projects Edina will need 7,491 additional units of housing between 2016 and 2040. Table 3.11 in the Comp Plan divides these units among the different land use categories, high density and up. It assumes none of the additional units will be low density or medium density. Column 8 takes the number of units in each land use category and multiplies them by the average student yield. If the City met the Met Council projection for number of new housing units, and these units were distributed among land use categories as shown in Table 3.11, it could result in 1,616 additional in-district students by 2040 – a potential 23% increase in in-district student enrollment. 

Additional discussion on Column 6

According to the enrollment projections report, single family detached homes, on average, yield .54 students per home (unit). This is more than double what an apartment unit yields, which is .23 students per unit. The assumptions in column 6 are that all 7,491 new units projected to be needed by 2040 will be apartments. This is because Table 3.11 in the Comp Plan assigns all new units to high density residential and up land use categories. None are assigned to low or medium density residential. The potential of 1,616 additional students by 2040 is therefore based entirely on development of 7,491 new multifamily units.

The enrollment projections report noted that apartments in Edina yield a higher number of students than is typical. It also noted that student yield from single family homes is more like that of a developing area than a first ring suburb. New units (tear downs, subdivisions) yield .75 students per unit. Existing homes that have recently sold yield .62 students per unit, compared to .52 students per existing home that has not recently sold.